When Does Competition Become Conflict? Technology, Geography, and the Offense–Defense Balance

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Is there a meaningful offense–defense balance of technological, geographical, and human factors that substantially affects war likelihood severity? Key contemporary policy debates are certainly infused with the notion, from dangers crisis instability in East Asia to possible first-move advantages cyber weaponry. Defensive realist theory, meanwhile, raises possibility inferring intent external posture choices. Yet for offensive realists, such signaling is doomed hope, because aggressors’ incentives conceal their hostile intentions before turning extant military technology ends. This article suggests both perspectives misstate causal role balance. Competition may be general condition international politics—but it only manifests itself as conflict, defined “cold” or ultimately “hot” war, under certain conditions. Specifically, feasibility advancing political goals via aggression rests on prevailing technology, taken its geographical context—that is, calculations. Via three sub-theoretical cases—the “stopping power water,” conventional blitzkrieg, nuclear counterforce innovation—the shows conflict severity even within realism, specifically by affecting deterrence prospects. But this does not mean, defensive realism posits, distinguishability defense dominance promises route out security dilemma.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Global Security Studies

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2057-3170']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogab007